Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
